*This blog post is part of a school project for a Time Series class. Although it is about a fictional country, the data is real.*
In Timeseria, just 2 months ago most people were making summer plans and looking forward to vacationing. Today, the rapidly increasing spread of COVID-19 is at the forefront of everyone’s concerns. As more people contract the disease and the economy suffers, the main questions weighing on our minds are: how many more people will catch it? When will this end? In these times of uncertainty, having some idea of how the next few weeks will look are essential for planning. Being able to predict the number of new cases each day will help the government make guidelines, as well as helping the general public understand the reasoning behind the guidelines.
Figure 1. Total detected COVID-19 counts from the first day of diagnosis to now in Timeseria.
Forecasting Methodology
The number of total COVID-19 counts each day, as shown in Figure 1, is increasing exponentially. To create a prediction model for this curve, we first transform the data into a line so that it is easier to work with. Then, we use a methodology called differencing, because the after applying differencing we end up with data that is in a suitable form that allows for forecasting future data points.
Total Diagnoses in 10 Days is Expected to Be Double the Current Total
Figure 2. Total covid counts by day, with the forecasted data from days 67-76 in red.
Assuming the current situation progresses, we are forecasted to have about 10,000 total diagnoses in 10 days (Figure 2). In the worst case scenario, the graph will level off close to the population of Timeseria, which may happen if we do not take any action. It is already too late to significantly reduce the number of total cases in the next 2 weeks, as that is the length of the incubation period for COVID-19. Many people feel a sense of hopelessness at seeing these dire projections and do not consider the economic suffering worth slowing down the spread of COVID-19. These frustrations are understandable; people rightfully fear how they will be able to pay their bills. However, we should not even have to ask ourselves to choose between human lives and the economy; the priority should always be to save lives. Additionally, the situation is not hopeless. We are still far from approaching the worst case scenario, and it is essential that we stop this exponential growth trend. We can flatten the curve, but this is only possible if everyone works together to stay home in order to prevent further spread.
This will be a very detailed post about my experience at KCon LA 2017, and I also included some advice for future attendees and an analysis on how much I spent on KCon. Hopefully somewhere in here is helpful information for people who want to attend KCon LA in the future, or just want to live vicariously through my post!
I actually decided to go pretty last minute (I hadn’t made the decision until around the beginning of July – and tickets went on sale on 7/14) – I would not recommend this, because by then a lot of hotels and Airbnb’s were already booked.
Why I decided to go
One of my friends had gotten me into Seventeen, and I was already a big fan of Wanna One after following Produce 101 Season 2. I didn’t care much about the rest of the line up (Got7, SF9, Astro, KARD, Heize, Super Junior D&E, Oh My Girl, Cosmic Girls/WJSN, Girl’s Day, VIXX), but since Seventeen did not have a California stop for their world tour (I guess they had already planned to attend KCon) and Wanna One is a temporary group, I thought I should take this chance to see them!
Buying Tickets
I decided to get P3 tickets; initially I was going to get P4, but I thought about it and since I was already going all the way to LA (ok it wasn’t that far since I’m from California but still), I wanted better seats, and at least P3 guaranteed two artist engagement audience passes.
The concert was in Staples Center, so I had to buy tickets through AXS (the ticketing service that the Staples Center uses). I literally used two different computers and my phone on the day of buying tickets because I had heard horror stories of the website not working on certain devices. The way AXS works is 30 minutes before the tickets go on sale, you enter a waiting room…and then when the tickets start to go on sale, you just hope that you’re close to the front of the line! I was able to pull two tickets, one on my phone and one on my laptop. The seat I ended up choosing was in the PR10 section (the other ticket was a PR11 which is about the same, but in a further row), which I was okay with.
I contributed to a whole bunch of fan projects (they were all banner projects organized by fans wanting to support artists), and I found them through Twitter and Facebook.
I also made two light up signs, one for Seventeen and one for Wanna One. For making signs, I would just make sure to be aware of sizing regulations for the venue (if signs are too big, they will confiscate them!). Here is a video of trying to figure out which way to put the string lights in my sign:
I also listened to popular songs by entire lineup so I would not be completely clueless during the concert; I find concerts to be more enjoyable if I can recognize most of the songs.
D-1: Early Registration
Early registration started at 1:00 pm, but based on other people’s advice I went really early with a friend; we got there at 9:30. At first, everyone was in one giant line but at around 9:45 they split us into two lines; one for P1-P2 and one for P3-P5. I think only P1-P2 really need to go early; the P3-P5 line was quite short (only P3 are guaranteed benefits anyway). And when registration actually started at 1, everyone made it inside the room (when I had finished picking up my tickets, I did not see anyone waiting outside). Inside the room there were separate booths for each tier, and I ended up being the first one in line for P3, which was exciting! I picked up my 2 audience engagement passes – they are randomized, so I got Oh My Girl and Got7 passes. I was hoping for a Seventeen one, but I was still happy because Got7 is popular so I knew I would be able to find someone who wanted to swap. But I was first in line, so I had to wait about 20 minutes for other people to pick up their passes before I could make the trade.
If lining up early for early registration, I would recommend bringing an umbrella because most people were not fortunate enough to be waiting under shade.
KCon Day 1
Through a raffle at the Asiana Airlines booth my friend won 2 Girl’s Day hi-touches.
She traded one for a Got7 hi-touch, and then for a Seventeen one and gave it to me (I was about to die from happiness)! I got an astro audience pass for free because I was trying to buy one for $5, but some guy just gave it to me instead!
Our collective haul from day 1 of kcon – I would say it was quite productive!
KCon Day 2
In the morning I just wandered around the booths and entered some raffles again (but I was not as lucky as my friend – I was not able to win anything).
Something unexpected happened though; one of the Girl’s Day hi-touches that my friend won from the Asiana booth was missing the KCon watermark in the upper right corner, so the hi-touch people would not let in the guy that my friend sold the hi-touch to…so word of warning: anytime you get a hi-touch (at registration, from a raffle, buying from someone), MAKE SURE THE WATERMARK IS THERE. This is what an official ticket looks like; in the upper right corner, you can see the KCON logo.
My friend and I had to go back to the Asiana booth after giving that guy his money back, and I was afraid that the people at the booth would think we were lying or something (we had no evidence since the hi-touch people had confiscated the “fake” hi-touch. Fortunately, the lady at the booth believed us and gave us a KARD hi-touch ticket, and we made sure that it had the watermark this time…
After sorting out that mess, I lined up for the Seventeen hi-touch (you can read more about that below in my advice section). During the actual artist engagement, people with hi-touch tickets get to be in the front section, and everyone else with regular artist engagement passes are in a section behind them. The hi-touch happens after the artist engagement session, and I was able to get a spot closer to the front after the hi-touch part was done for Seventeen’s artist engagement session, so for a few minutes I was not staring at someone’s head!
Concert Night 1
I had some trouble with my backpack and with my light-up sign; they suddenly announced that backpacks that were of the Jansport size or bigger needed to go through extra screening (they did not tell us this until we were lining up for the concert…). My sign was a few inches bigger than the regulation, but the security people were really nice about it and just said I could take it in with me as long as I did not block anyone’s view. I even made it onto the M Countdown broadcast!
KCon Day 3
It was a pretty chill day; my friend and I waited a really long time to try out the huge claw machine and failed miserably. We wandered around the booths again, but there was not much to win. We ended up being able to find people who were giving away their Astro and Oh My Girl audience passes, so we just went to those for fun.
People waited hours for Wanna one at the Innisfree booth, and I am a fan of Wanna One but I did not want to be involved in that craziness so I stayed away.
Concert Night 2
This time I was smarter and put my sign into a tote bag; for the concert they were only allowing very small backpacks, purses, and the official KCON tote bags. So I did not get stopped because of a backpack or my sign this time around!
Post-KCon Thoughts
Concert
not enough songs by each group
for the second night, the artists were rushed off of the stage at the end
it was an amazing experience to see the crazy mix of lightsticks
one of the reasons I love kpop is because of the synchronized dancing – so awesome to see in person!
Convention
mostly beauty
not enough merchandise shops
was trying to find a poster of S.Coups but only one booth was selling, and for $15 when other booths were selling posters for $5
ridiculously long lines for everything
advice: literally enter in every raffle, and KEEP TRACK of when each one announces winners, a lot of people will not show up so you have a higher chance of winning
I wish I had participated in one of the dance workshops – it looked really fun! I watched people learn dances and do random play dances while I was eating
Hi-Touch
pretty rushed; not enough time to say more than one sentence (I literally repeated the same thing to all of the members – “Thanks for coming!”)
I should have tried to slow down and take my time to remember clearly my time with each member
thinking back on it, it was such a blur; I only remember Woozi (because he was the first one), Joshua, and S.Coups (dimples!!!)
I got in line for the Hi-Touch line really early – I think 2-3 hours in advance? And there were already so many people waiting there! It was fun to talk to people who were also waiting in line and freak out together about getting to meet the artists
Artist Engagement
stage was too high
even in the Hi-Touch section (for Seventeen), I was mainly looking at the back of people’s heads (I was in the second row, not the first, up against the railing)
crazy fan girls screaming,which would be fine, if they screamed at appropriate times
they screamed even when members were trying to answer questions, so I could not hear them talking
for the less popular groups, it was actually really fun
I went to Oh My Girl and Astro; those were not as rushed as the Seventeen one
Special Appearances
Did not actually see any of these…but I guess if you are hanging around sponsor stages (for example there was a Toyota stage) at the right time you can see some artists up close! (I have heard that the general advice is to ask the staff at the sponsor stage when artists will show up, and sometimes they will tell you).
How Wanna One Was Handled
I honestly felt like Wanna One fans were scammed; everyone thought that they were going to have a normal artist engagement (I think SM artists are usually the only ones that do NOT have artist engagement sessions). Instead, the only way to meet Wanna One was to win the raffle, and the only way to get entered into the raffle was to buy KCON merchandise (and buying merchandise was NOT a guarantee to get the hi-touch ticket – totally taking advantage of Wanna One fans). And then at KCON Australia they had a normal artist engagement (none of the buying merch to enter a raffle nonsense…I am still salty about this).
Tips for Future Attendees
bring water and food to the convention
don’t be dumb like me and get so caught up in the excitement and literally forget to eat
enter yourself in all of the raffles, be there when the winner is announced (so many no-shows when I went to listen to who won!)
go to the convention on Friday if possible
less people -> higher chance of winning raffles
look at all the booths you want, then you won’t have to worry about missing out on the booths when attending artist engagements, panels, etc.
if you are going to an artist engagement…
and want to be in the front, be prepared to wait for hours in advance and missing a lot of the convention
if you do not care about being in the front, then go basically when it starts and just stand in the middle of the room to get a decent view (and not get squashed by everyone else)
do not pay more than $20 for an artist engagement audience pass
artist engagements are only really good if you can stand in the very front, which requires waiting in line for hours (literally)
if you’re not in the first row, then it is actually better to stand further back in the room (not just staring at the back of people’s heads!)
a lot of people are willing to just give them away (no point in attending if not a fan)
I got 2 Astro and 1 Oh My Girl audience passes for free, because people who had them and were not fans just did not want them
for hi-touches…you can pay what you want, but personally I would not pay more than $30 for one even for my favorite groups (hi-touches are SO brief, it’s honestly just not worth the money)
if you’re really set on acquiring particular artist engagement audience passes/hi-touches
use Twitter (kcon hashtag), and the Facebook ticket buy/sell group to trade/buy artist engagement passes and hi-touches
make sure your ticket has the KCON watermark (don’t get scammed!)
if attending pre-registration, bring a paper and pen so you can make a sign of what you want and what you are offering to trade/how much you’re willing to pay
if going to pre-registration, bring an umbrella just in case you are not lucky enough to be waiting in the shade
go early for all days of the convention
there will be special events by different booths to possibly meet different artists
this year there was a special Toyota test drive thing at 9 on Sunday that if you were one of the first 10 people, you could get a picture with Astro!
I was SO regretting going to the convention at 10:30 on that day…
do not bring a backpack to the concert (if at Staples Center); people who had Jansport backpacks or bigger had to go through an extra security screening
no water or food in Staples center (this is for the concert, water and food is fine in the convention center)
if bringing a sign to the concert
make sure it fits the size regulations of the venue
if in the PR sections of the Staples center: your sign probably will be too far away to be read (unless it is a light up sign)…but I still suggest bringing banners and such! the artist will most likely see that you are holding a banner up even if they can’t read what is on it, and will probably appreciate the gesture of support. and you might show up on the big screen or the broadcast!
bring a lightstick to the concert (if you don’t have one or cannot afford one – since official lightsticks are quite expensive, kcon usually sells one for a decent price – this year I think it was $15)! one of my favorite parts of kcon concerts; so many different lightsticks in one place, and it makes for a very visually appealing experience
Cost Analysis
Breakdown of Costs
P3 concert ticket 310
convention ticket 26
airbnb 175
plane ticket 120
food 150
merchandise 100
TOTAL ~900 Would I go again?
Yes, it was very fun. But I would only go if at least half the lineup are groups that I like (and the chances of that are quite slim…). So we’ll see what future lineups are…
And in that case I would buy a P2 or P1 ticket (depending on if I wanted to go to multiple nights – I would hope that all of my favorite artists are on the same night, but that never happens…). I thought P3 was already decent seating, but I had to really squint if I wanted to make out any facial features…I would only again to multiple groups I really like, in which case I would want to be closer. For KCON 2017, I only went for Wanna One and Seventeen, so I did not want to spend too much (although I feel like I probably did for the concert…).
The one thing I do not like for the P1 ticket is that it comes with a red carpet pass, and I am not interested in going to that (I don’t think you would be able to see anything unless you are tall, and during the red carpet I think you literally just watch the idols walk by you – and I don’t think that is that interesting, and on top of that, to get a good spot you have to wait hours in line – a recurring theme for conventions unfortunately).
